1. Predictability of the climate system (invited)

Our planet is a complex dynamical system involving numerous and diverse processes interacting across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. Achieving the seamless prediction of its climate from sub-seasonal to decadal time scales is a primary goal of the global Earth sciences community. Yet there remain gaps in the fundamental understanding of the sources and impacts of decadal climate variability and predictability. This session is dedicated to facilitate presentations and discussion of the recent progress in addressing these gaps. It focuses on advances in methodological, theoretical and applied studies in system dynamics across the climate sciences directed towards the physical understanding and predictability of regimes, transitions and extremes. The session further encourages discussion on mathematical and physical approaches to climate system dynamics, ranging from traditional stochastic-dynamic and information-theoretic formulations to emerging methodologies aimed at far-from-equilibrium processes in non-ergodic systems. The talks will span a range mathematical and physical geosciences and feature diverse approaches ranging from dynamical modeling to data mining and analysis grounded on fundamental physical principles.

2. Hysteresis, tipping points, and abrupt changes in the climate system (focus)

The Earth system has strong internal variability on many time scales. Large-scale transitions can occur due to tipping points in components of the climate system, and in many cases these depend on complex interaction between different sub-systems. However, the role of small-scale processes in inducing these transitions is not well understood for many important tipping points. These issues have been elevated in importance since the Earth’s climate is currently experiencing an unprecedented transition under non-stationary anthropogenic radiative forcing and is far out of equilibrium with this forcing. This session aims at connecting fluctuations and responses for the climate system with a focus on issues involving abrupt climate change, climatic hysteresis, and tipping points. General approaches and novel measures to quantify the climate response to non-stationary forcing in the climate system are encouraged. We also seek talks on complex interactions between the different components and subcomponents of the Earth system that illuminate how these interactions can induce rapid, large-scale transitions in its major components. Submissions which are focused on the study of reasons and mechanisms of the emergent behavior are especially welcome.